Forecasting Effectiveness Of The Exchange Rate Of Euro Finance Essay - Free Essay Example

The proposed title for this topic analysis is forecasting effectiveness of the exchange rate of Euro in the conditions of financial crisis. 2. Introduction and Background: There has been significant discussion within the financial management literature regarding the forecasting techniques used to analyse future turbulence within the currency exchange rates. This focus, according to Perry (2009) is due to the fact that any such fluctuations have a direct correlation with the profitability of an international firm. Yu et al (2006) has argued that currency fluctuation has increasingly become an important financial management phenomenon due to its direct correlation with the costing and pricing of the products, supplies, and operations of contemporary firms. It has been argued by Buti van den Noord (2009) that organisations that are only operational within single national economy are also subjected to the turbulence within the hard currencies as a number of raw materials and inputs of the value chain of the firm are internationally traded. According to Yu et al (2006), hard currencies are stable economic units that are used as key trading currencies due t o their relative reliability and stability over extended periods of time. Euro has become increasingly important international currency since it was introduced within the EU on 1st January 1999. Drawing upon Emerging Europe Monitor (2009), it can be highlighted after the initial period of turbulence due to the harmonisation of exchange rates across the EU member states; the currency has become highly stable and is therefore become the second largest reserve currency in the world after the US Dollar. The stability of the currency has been recognised from the fact that it is adopted by more than 16 advanced and developed EU member states, which combined makes the second largest economy in the world based on cumulated GDP and purchasing power parity. This proposed research is therefore aimed at forecasting effectiveness of the exchange rate of Euro in the conditions of financial crisis. 3. Theory and Prior Research: Foreign exchange forecasting have been found as key mechanism across the markets of the world for a number of decades that challenge the efficient market hypothesis, i.e. currencies are rationally priced and reflect all the available information. Sosvilla-Rivero Garca (2005) has provided evidence for return reversal across markets in the long term while analysing the Dollar and Euro exchange rate forecasting. The study has provided empirical evidence by dividing the currencies into winners and losers based on their exchange rate fluctuations in past three years. It was found by the study that losers outperform winners in the five year returns to post-formation of these categories. These findings cannot be explained with rational pricing model, nor can it be explained through weak form of market efficiency. The researchers have explained this change in returns as over reaction of investors to past market and economic information. Dunis Williams (2002) have also linked market efficie ncy with the degree of forecasting within exchange rates while studying the momentum effect. The researchers noticed that investors that followed short term strategies of buying performing currencies and selling losing currencies over a three to twelve month time period resulted in significant positive returns over the three to twelve month holding time. It has been suggested by the researchers that this turbulence in prediction represents that buying and selling past winners and losers respectively will lead to the currency exchange to move temporarily away from their real long term value. Later studies have also found similar results and underlying reasons across the capital markets of the world, for example Jamaleh (2002) has studied twelve biggest European stock markets regarding the underlying reasons for momentum effect and signaled towards the weak form of efficiency as the main cause, which has been compared to the exchange rate forecasting by Savchenko Makar (2010). There is a school of thought that has related semi-strong form of market efficiency with exchange rate fluctuations and suggested that it is one of the major underlying cause of their presence in todays developed currency markets. The semi-strong market hypothesis, according to Sartore et al (2002), suggests that investors can not earn abnormal risk-adjusted returns using any information and data that is publicly available. The hypothesis has been challenged by a number of studies that have concluded that investors in some particular circumstances have been able to earn extra ordinary profits with the publicly available information. Jose (2001), for example has found through his longitudinal research that average returns of large caps were very low given their market beta values, while on the other end the average returns of small caps were too high. A similar such investigation has been undertaken by Mary (2002), who divided currencies into categories based on market capitalisation and average return over the first year after the formation. The study was used data over the period between 1963 and 1990, and found out that small caps during this time period outperformed the large caps by 0.76% on average return per month. Therefore, it can be suggested that market behaved against the predictions of the capital asset pricing (CAPM) model for currencies, which highlights that high caps earn higher than small caps. There has also been a discussion in the literature related to underlying reasons for turbulence in exchange rates that have been focused on the effects of economic announcements that also violates the semi-strong market efficiency hypothesis. One of the key studies in the area has been undertaken by Patrick (1998) that divided the currencies into ten different categories based on the change of earning surprise in the most recent economic and interest announcements. The methodology used by the research was to analyse the performance of each category during the sixty days period after the economic policy announcement. The study found out that the category with the highest value for good interest earnings outperform the category with the worst interest earnings announcements by a degree of 4%. Ales Jaromir (2010) has explained the phenomenon and suggested that currencies with positive earnings announcements have even higher stability in the time period prior to the policy announcement, and at the same time the negative announcements earn relatively higher turbulence. However, in the post announcement period, the currencies with higher earnings surprise also earn significant higher return, which in the case of research of Farhad (2004) is when the categories have been formed. Therefore, it has been suggested by the researcher that there is clear evidence that market under reacts to the new information available and the foreign exchange prices of hard currencies are slowly revised. The literature has also indicated other variables that have been linked with future foreign exchange performance predictions and forecasts. Drawing upon Andrew (2001), it can be suggested that these variables in currency exchanges are fundamentally scaled by pricing and therefore capital asset pricing model (CAPM) should be used. One of the types of scaled price ratio is the book to market ratio and companies with higher ratios are called value currencies, while with lower values are called growth currencies. According to CAPM, the growth currencies should outperform value growth on the basis of risk differentials attached with each, however the empirical evidence from across the currencies markets of the world negate this explanation. Patrick (1998), for example is one of the key empirical studies using major currencies data. The research divided currencies using the book-to-market ratio and calculated the average return for each category the year after their formation. It was found out by the research that value currencies performed 1.53% better than growth currencies in terms of average monthly returns. Drawing upon Buti van den Noord (2009), the difference between the between the average return of the value currencies and growth currencies is termed as value premium. This value premium has not been successfully explained with the help of market beta and price-to-earnings ratios. 4. Research Objectives: The proposed aim of this research is to critically analyse the effectiveness of forecasting the exchange rate of Euro in the conditions of financial crisis. In order to achieve the proposed aim of this study, the researcher has developed a range of specific research objectives, which have been summarised as follows: To critically analyse academic point of view surrounding forecasting of exchange rates in turbulent market conditions To analyse the effectiveness of the popular forecasting techniques that are used within the research to forecast exchange rates of Euro To highlight key issues that have been found to have implications on the future exchange rate fluctuations of Euro in the context of financial crisis 5. Methods and Data: Research methodology, according to Adams Schvaneveldt (1991) is the key towards highlighting feasibility of the research in the context of wider academic and practitioner environment. It has been argued within the research authenticity and reliability of findings of the research is also highly linked with the robustness of the research methodology and data collection strategy. According to Taylor Bogdan (1998) methodology in academic research can be seen as the way in which researchers approach the problem and seek its answers. Saunders et al (2003) has highlighted a prescriptive framework that can be used to achieve a robust methodology, which is referred to as research onion as decision at each ring has implications on the inner sections. The research onion would therefore be used to achieve the aim and objectives set out for this report and have been illustrated as follows: Research Onion (Saunders et al, 2003) 5.1 Methods: The research philosophy that underpins this proposed topic is positivism, which is an epistemological setting that has been used to reach definitive conclusion through positive verification (Saunders et el, 2003). The topic of exchange rate forecasting can be seen to have high degree of objectivity attached to it, which would require conclusive empirical evidence to be proven to hold or not to hold in the context of contemporary financial crisis. This is the reason that the research has found deduction to be aligned towards achieving the aim and objectives of this proposed research. The selection of epistemological philosophy and research approach for this proposed research has their implications on data collection strategy, which has been explained in the following sub-section. 5.2 Data: The researcher proposes multiple method research methods, which would help in achieving triangulation of data (Saunders et al, 2003) and the diverse range of research objectives of this proposed study (Taylor Bogdan, 1998). These methods include the following: Secondary Quantitative Research: The secondary quantitative data surrounding historical Euro exchange rate data would be collected along with the key macro, micro and meso business environment changes that have impacted on the turbulence and fluctuations within the exchange rate data. Drawing upon Adams Schvaneveldt (1991), secondary data collection can help in acquiring audited data that has already been checked for its internal consistency, therefore reducing overall time and resource allocation. It has been argued by Saunders et al (2003) that secondary data provides the advantage of collecting both longitudinal and cross sectional data, which is the requirement of this proposed research, where forecasting and exchange rate data surrounding Euro would be required in both traditional and contemporary sense for the purpose of comparison. Semi-Structured Interviews: The primary data surrounding the effectiveness of different forecasting methods used for Euro exchange rate will be achieved through semi-structured interviews with forex traders. According to Taylor Bogdan (1998), this data source can help achieve significant insight into the topic under analysis and can therefore help recommend changes to the current forecasting techniques. The sampling technique that would be used to select forex traders to comment on forecasting effectiveness of the exchange rate of Euro in the contemporary financial crisis conditions would be random sampling. Saunders et al (2003) has argued that using semi-structured interviews provides high degree of control to the researcher in terms of focusing key areas that require further elaboration and discussion. 6. Research Ethics: Ethics within the context of academic research has been highlighted by Wells (1994) as the code of behaviour that can be seen as appropriate and acceptable by other academics and practitioners within the field. It can therefore be argued that the definition is broad and subjective, however there are prescribed codes of conduct and ethics highlighted by a number of market research institutions and associations. It should be noted that the only ethical exposure of the current research is associated with the primary data collection, where semi-structured interviews would be collected. Drawing upon Saunders et al (2003), the researcher would therefore develop an informed consent with the interviewees to include any information provided by them into the analysis and final report. In order to streamline the ethical implications of this proposed study, the researcher would therefore use the guidelines of market research given by the renowned MRS association. The use of such ethical underpin nings would help this proposed research, its key findings report and further recommendations to be free from any ethical issue. 7. Time Scale and Resources: It should be noted that the current proposed research is bound by limited time period and resources. The allocation of time and resources has therefore been analysed to highlight the feasibility of this research. Drawing upon Robsons (2002), the research should have low levels of risks in terms of researchers access to the resources required for the research. The key resources required for this research include access to academic literature and secondary traditional data surrounding Euro, which has been negotiated through ATHENS account from university library. The limited time has also been allocated to key aspects of the research and the division of time and labour has been highlighted with the help of the following Gantt chart. In the light of recommendations by Taylor Bogdan (1998), the researcher would use Microsoft Project to keep track of the progress and milestones surrounding the research. Week 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 Steps 1 Preliminary research ÂÂ   ÂÂ   ÂÂ   ÂÂ   ÂÂ   ÂÂ   2 Objective Clarification ÂÂ   ÂÂ   ÂÂ   ÂÂ   ÂÂ   ÂÂ   3 Semi-structured Interviews ÂÂ   ÂÂ   ÂÂ   ÂÂ   ÂÂ   ÂÂ   4 Commercial Literature ÂÂ   ÂÂ   ÂÂ   ÂÂ   ÂÂ   ÂÂ   5 Academic Literature ÂÂ   ÂÂ   ÂÂ   ÂÂ   ÂÂ   ÂÂ   6 Progress Report 7 Data Analysis and Processing 8 Final Report Gantt Chart of Key Activities

How Did Isabella DEste Influence The Renaissance Period

ISABELLA D’ESTE QUESTIONS How did Isabella D’este influence the Renaissance period? Isabella d’Este was a powerful and well-educated cultural and political figure. She contributed to the Renaissance period by changing the unique role of woman in the Renaissance age, Isabella was openly , opinionated about politics topics and warfare. When her husband, Francesco 2 Gonzaga left the city, Isabella governed Mantua on her own. Isabella changed Mantua into a centre of culture and art and became Chief of State. She was also famous for her fashion sense, which reinvented the style of womens clothing. At the end of her life, Isabella d’Este created an all girls school to educate woman, equal to men with strict and high expectations. She returned†¦show more content†¦Many people helped her succeed in her field of politics. Starting from her parents, Eleanor of Naples and Ercole l d’Este, duke of Ferrara, her parents believed in fair education between man and woman, so she reserved an education not frequently affordable for woman. This helped shap e Isabella and open her eyes to art and politics. At the age of sixteen she could speak Greek and Latin and had a variety of musical talents including singing, dancing, and playing the lute. Her father enhanced her knowledge by giving her great teachings about politics. Isabella was accomplished enough to understand politics to debate with ambassadors when she was only sixteen. She helped her husband, Francesco II Gonzaga, rule Mantua, which made her power in politics rise, as she learned valuable teachings from her husband. Other patrons that supported Isabella were Leonardo d Vinci, who was a close friend to Isabella and painted many paintings of her. Her sister Beatrice supported and helped Isabella though her life and after the death of Francesco. How did Isabella think about the reformation and what major ideas did she contribute in the Renaissance period? Did she support or go against? Isabella d’Este believed in the growth of art, architecture, culture and knowledge in the Renaissance period. She contributed to the growth of art by supporting the greatest artists of that time, such as Mantegna, Titian, and da Vinci, all of whom she commissioned

Maria said that the children have an inner force, it gives...

Maria said that the children have an inner force, it gives them the strength and energy to achieve potentially. When you give a child guidance and freedom, they focus mainly on what they need to know. Children have more confidence and they do not need to rely on the teachers. Maria had put optimism and humanism in her teaching. Montessori approach, she made the school beautiful and careful environment for the children. Didactic materials, so she could meet the needs of each child at their level of development. The teacher has to prepare instructions that get the children interested in the activity. I believe that they should not force it upon the child, it is better for the child to choose his or her activity as they will become more†¦show more content†¦Observation is a key method, it is a way for the adults to learn about what the child needs. For example, if you see a child hammering on objects this means that the child is involved in the activity so we give him a drum. This is how observation can help and achieve a child’s requirement. Following the Child The child will show you what they need to do, what to develop in themselves and what are the areas they need to be challenged in. â€Å"The aim of the children who persevere in their work with an object is certainly not to â€Å"learn†; they are drawn to it by the needs of their inner life, which must be recognized and developed by its means.† – Maria Montessori. Following the child around in the classroom will help you find out a little more about the child. If they want to climb, let them climb in a safe manner. Do not be overprotective or they will always rely on the teachers. It is better for the child to understand and be mature from a younger age as it will help them in the future. Also it is best not to tell the child what to do all the time, the child needs to familiarise themselves within their environment. 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Kansas City Hyatt Walkway Collapse free essay sample

Dozens stood on the walkways. At 7:05 PM, the walkways on the second, third, and fourth floor were packed with visitors as they watched over the active lobby, which was also full of people. The fourth floor bridge was suspended directly over the second floor bridge, with the third floor walkway set off to the side several meters away from the other two. Construction issues led to a subtle but flawed design change that doubled the load on the connection between the fourth floor walkway support beams and the tie rods carrying the weight of the second floor walkway. This new design could barely handle the dead load weight of the structure itself, much less the weight of the spectators standing on it. The connection failed and both walkways crashed one on top of the other and then into the lobby below, killing 114 people and injuring more than 200 others. Mainbody FIG-1 FIG-2 Originally, the 2nd and 4th floor walkways were to be suspended from the same rod (as shown in fig-1) and held in place by nuts. We will write a custom essay sample on Kansas City Hyatt Walkway Collapse or any similar topic specifically for you Do Not WasteYour Time HIRE WRITER Only 13.90 / page The preliminary design sketches contained a note specifying a strength of 413 MPa for the hanger rods which was omitted on the final structural drawings. Following the general notes in the absence of a specification on the drawing, the contractor used hanger rods with only 248 MPa of strength. This original design, however, was highly impractical because it called for a nut 6. 1 meters up the hanger rod and did not use sleeve nuts. The contractor modified this detail to use 2 hanger rods instead of one (as shown in fig-2) and the engineer approved the design change without checking it. This design change doubled the stress exerted on the nut under the fourth floor beam. Now this nut supported the weight of 2 walkways instead of just one Conclution FIG-3 FIG-4 Neither the original nor the as-built design for the hanger rod satisfied the Kansas City building code making the connection failure inevitable. If, however, the building design had contained more redundancy this failure may not have resulted in the complete collapse of the walkway. Kaminetzky (1991) suggests two much stronger design alternatives for the connectors. The toe-to-toe channels used in the Hyatt Regency provided for weak welding which allowed the nut to pull through the channel/box beam assembly initiating the collapse. A back-to-back channel design using web stiffeners when necessary (fig-3) or the use of bearing crossplates in conjunction with the toe-to-toe channels (fig-4) would have made the connection much stronger making it much more difficult for the nut to pull through

Surrender and Regrant of Henry the VIII Essay Example

Surrender and Regrant of Henry the VIII Paper I am going to assess how successful the policy of Surrender and Regrant of Henry the VIII. At the start of Henry VIII reign around 1509 he was lord of Ireland but had very little power over Ireland. Except in the pale even this was being challenged by the Fitzgerald’s. The rest of Ireland was controlled by a long line of Irish families or Anglo Irish people whose ancestors had settled in Ireland when Henry VII was king. Before Henry VIII inserted the policy of surrender and regrant in Ireland he did try and take military action and sent 2,300 men to try and take control of Ireland. When this failed he decided to take down the Fitzgerald’s the main family in power in Ireland at the time. But finally henry decided his best option was surrender and regrant which was less costly and more effective way of taking control. 1 Henry wanted to reform Ireland into a protestant country, which would prove to be a hard task as Ireland was a strong religious country and very faithful to Rome. Henrys break with Rome now left him with many enemies as most of Europe was catholic. Ireland now could be used against England by France or Spain as a way to launch an attack. 2 Henry was mainly concerned about the four counties surrounding Dublin known as the pale. The Irish nobles ruled the area surrounding the pale known as the colony. The Fitzgerald’s ruled the colony until 1534 and were very powerful and had great authority in Ireland.3 I feel the Fitzgerald’s play a very important part in how the policy of surrender and regrant came about. The Fitzgerald’s and the colony had no loyalty to the royals but they paid there feudal laws. We will write a custom essay sample on Surrender and Regrant of Henry the VIII specifically for you for only $16.38 $13.9/page Order now We will write a custom essay sample on Surrender and Regrant of Henry the VIII specifically for you FOR ONLY $16.38 $13.9/page Hire Writer We will write a custom essay sample on Surrender and Regrant of Henry the VIII specifically for you FOR ONLY $16.38 $13.9/page Hire Writer The Fitzgerald’s were the most powerful family in Ireland. Gerald Mor Fitzgerald was the 8th earl of Kildare and also the lord deputy of Ireland. Henry VII however removed Gerald Mor Fitzgerald from his role as lord deputy as Gerald was sympathetic to the House of Yorks. Henry VII sent Edward Poynings to replac

oncology essays

oncology essays Cancer covers a large group of diseases that have malignant properties. This means that there is a tendency to grow and spread, sometime rapidly and sometimes slowly. Doctors identify the cancer by the site or type of cell type where it starts. For example, there are many types of cancers. Cancer in the uterus is uterine cancer; cancer in the breast is breast cancer; and cancer in the colon is colon cancer. The physician who specializes in the treatment of cancer is called an oncologist and the doctor who reviews and diagnoses the disease is called a pathologist. The test they take, the ultrasound of your abdomen and pelvis, indicated that you have renal-cell carcinoma of the right kidney. This is a cancer of the genitourinary system. It is also the most common type of kidney cancer and it used to be called hypernephroma. We do not know exactly how cancers start but this type of cancer is thought to be associated with smoking. However, statistics show that only about one-third of renal cell carcinoma is associated with smoking and it happens twice as often in men as in women. Let me explain how the kidneys work. First of all, we have two kidneys and they produce urine in a two-part process. In the first process, the kidneys filter the blood through filters called glomeruli. These filters separate the blood cells, that is, the red cells, white cells and platelets, from the liquid part which is called the plasma. The liquid part passes through tubules and is processed so that needed materials are returned to the blood and unwanted waste materials are passed on. In the second process, the kidneys collect the liquid that will be urine and pass it into many different bigger tubules until it gets to a port called the pelvis of the kidney. Then the urine flows to the ureter, which is a thin tube that leads to the bladder. One good thing to remember is a person can live with only one kidney and can also liv ...

Launching a BPA-free Product Line With Event Marketing Assignment

Launching a BPA-free Product Line With Event Marketing - Assignment Example Bisphenol-A is a toxic material that had been found in polycarbonate feeding bottles of babies. The product launch showcases safe feeding bottles and other feeding products which are safe to use for infants and toddlers. The report also describes how stakeholders were involved in the event and which marketing communication strategies were included in the marketing communication mix. Nuby, considered the world’s number 1 infant care feeding and teething company has come up with a new line of products which are Bisphenol A- (BPA) free. BPA is a toxic substance found in polycarbonate plastic which is used in baby bottles (Klotter, 2006). It is an endocrine disrupter which is a toxic substance that interferes with hormonal functions regulating reproduction, normal cell growth, among others. Grossman (2007) reports that chronic and continued exposure to Bisphenol A may lead to diseases related to the reproductive system such as prostate cancer, breast cancer, cystic ovaries, and en dometriosis. Polycarbonate bottles used as babies can have long term consequences in children. To prevent exposure to this health risk, Nuby has created baby bottles, cups and toys that are Bisphenol-A free. These are relatively more expensive than the regular polycarbonate ones, but considering the safety of children from the fatal risks, they are definitely worth it. Main Findings Nuby has approached Parents’ Magazine which advertises its products, to launch its new line of BPA-free products. These are feeding bottles, sippers, cups and bowls for infants and toddlers which are not made of polycarbonate material and which are free from the toxic substance, Bisphenol-A. Nuby has created such â€Å"products to eliminate any risk or doubt and offer parents the safest option† (Nuby website, 2013). Parents Magazine invited HealthyChildren.org to co-organize the event launch since this organization has the â€Å"only parenting website supported by 60,000 pediatricians comm itted to the attainment of optimal physical, mental, and social health and well-being for all infants, children, adolescents, and young adults† (HealthyChildren.org.). Having doctors speak about Bisphenol A is a responsible act in promoting health issues concerning parents and their children. Both organizations, Parents’ Magazine and HealthyChildren.org will add credibility to the endorsement of the new line of Nuby products. Both organizations are opinion leaders and opinion formers that can greatly influence the preferences of consumers. Event marketing is presented as a way to build brand equity (Keller, 2009). Band equity is the â€Å"added value† which a given brand provides a certain product (Farquhar, 1989). In the case of Nuby products, being BPA-free is the brand equity. Promoting its use is an ethical thing to do instead of just letting people continue with their old habits of purchasing polycarbonate products to use with their children. Baines et al (2 011) contend that marketing communication methods are used to spread information about an organization’s products and services while engaging a target audience. The marketing communication format should have specific objectives as to the desired responses of the audience. Planning the product launch of Nuby’s new line of BPA-free feeding bottles is guided by the planning framework of De Pelsmacker (2010) Analysis of Exhibition Process Wohfeil and Whelan (2006) describe event marketing as interactive communication of brand values by engaging consumers in a marketing event resulting in their emotional attachment to the brand. Zarantonello & Schmitt (2013) compare event marketing to be more direct, and highly interactive than the distant, one-way